Optimasi Waktu dan Biaya Proyek Shoring Protection Menggunakan Integrasi Time Cost Trade Off dan Simulasi Monte Carlo
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Keterlambatan proyek konstruksi dapat meningkatkan biaya, mengganggu arus kas, dan menurunkan kinerja proyek. Permasalahan ini terjadi pada Proyek Shoring Protection sepanjang 2.000 meter di Tanah Grogot, Kalimantan Timur, akibat rendahnya produktivitas pemancangan, keterlambatan pasokan spun pile, dan ketidakpastian cuaca. Penelitian ini bertujuan mengoptimalkan waktu dan biaya proyek serta menentukan skenario percepatan yang paling realistis melalui integrasi metode Time–Cost Trade-Off (TCTO) dan Simulasi Monte Carlo. Penelitian menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif dengan eksperimen simulatif berdasarkan data sekunder berupa jadwal pelaksanaan, Work Breakdown Structure, biaya proyek, nilai kontrak, dan produktivitas aktual. Aktivitas kritis diidentifikasi menggunakan Critical Path Method, kemudian dianalisis melalui TCTO dengan QM for Windows. Ketidakpastian durasi dimodelkan menggunakan distribusi triangular melalui 10.000 iterasi pada Oracle Crystal Ball. Hasil TCTO menunjukkan bahwa tanpa percepatan, proyek memerlukan total durasi 709 hari dengan biaya Rp160,53 miliar. Skenario pemulihan jadwal kontrak menghasilkan durasi total 491 hari dengan biaya Rp161,51 miliar dan probabilitas pencapaian sekitar 40%. Skenario percepatan maksimum menghasilkan durasi total 462 hari dengan biaya tertinggi sebesar Rp162,53 miliar, tetapi memiliki probabilitas pencapaian yang sangat rendah. Sementara itu, skenario optimum menghasilkan total durasi 612 hari dengan biaya terendah sebesar Rp160,57 miliar dan probabilitas pencapaian mendekati 100%. Dengan demikian, integrasi TCTO dan Simulasi Monte Carlo menghasilkan keputusan percepatan yang lebih komprehensif karena mempertimbangkan waktu, biaya, dan risiko secara simultan. Skenario optimum direkomendasikan sebagai alternatif paling efisien dan andal untuk penyelesaian proyek.
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