Mekanisme Transmisi Risiko Iklim dan Transisi Air Baku terhadap Rasio Operasi (BOPO) Perumda Air Minum Tirta Moedal Kota Semarang: Studi Kasus Eksplanatori Sekuensial Periode 2023–2024
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Perubahan iklim secara sistemik mentransmisikan risiko fisik lingkungan menjadi kerentanan finansial bagi Badan Usaha Milik Daerah (BUMD) air minum di kawasan pesisir. Namun demikian, jalur transmisi risiko tersebut ke indikator efisiensi biaya mikro korporat jarang dipetakan secara eksplisit. Penelitian ini bertujuan menelusuri mekanisme kausal yang menghubungkan risiko iklim (kekeruhan ekstrem air baku di hulu dan penurunan muka tanah di hilir) serta kebijakan transisi ekologis sumber air baku—dari Air Bawah Tanah (ABT) ke air permukaan melalui skema Kerja Sama Pemerintah dan Badan Usaha (KPBU)—dengan pergerakan Rasio Operasi (Operating Ratio/BOPO) Perumda Air Minum Tirta Moedal Kota Semarang periode 2023–2024. Desain penelitian menggunakan studi kasus eksplanatori sekuensial (mixed-methods) tunggal dengan pendekatan mekanistik (causal process tracing) berbasis logika Bayesian guna menguji rigor internal rantai kausal, dilengkapi dekomposisi varians biaya akuntansi. Hasil menunjukkan BOPO naik dari 0,83 (2023) menjadi 0,84 (2024) karena beban operasional tumbuh 10,86%, melampaui pertumbuhan pendapatan operasional 10,20%. Faktor pendorong dominan adalah lonjakan beban pembelian air curah 21,97% (menjadi Rp120,70 miliar) akibat kebijakan transisi ekologis berskema take-or-pay, disusul kenaikan biaya bahan kimia 13,52% (menjadi Rp13,48 miliar) akibat volatilitas kekeruhan sungai 6.000–10.000 NTU, serta diperparah akumulasi kehilangan air (Non-Revenue Water/NRW) 44,64% yang dipicu kerusakan pipa struktural akibat amblesan pesisir. Kebaharuan penelitian terletak pada integrasi model akuntansi biaya mikro dengan risiko hidrologis makro. Rekomendasi strategis mencakup formulasi blended resilience financing dan restrukturisasi tarif Full Cost Recovery (FCR) berbasis mitigasi risiko iklim.
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