Faktor Makro yang Mempengaruhi Krisis Perbankan di Indonesia Periode 1997–2025 (Analisis Determinan Krisis Perbankan melalui Pendekatan Money Market Pressure Index)
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Stabilitas sektor perbankan merupakan pilar utama ketahanan sistem keuangan Indonesia, mengingat sektor ini menguasai 92,49% aset konglomerasi keuangan nasional pada tahun 2024 (Otoritas Jasa Keuangan, 2025). Penelitian ini bertujuan mengidentifikasi periode krisis perbankan di Indonesia menggunakan pendekatan Money Market Pressure Index (MMPI) serta menganalisis pengaruh delapan variabel makroekonomi inflasi, pertumbuhan PDB riil, suku bunga riil, nilai tukar riil, rasio M2 terhadap cadangan luar negeri, pertumbuhan ekspor, pertumbuhan kredit riil, dan rasio aset luar negeri terhadap utang luar negeri terhadap probabilitas terjadinya krisis perbankan selama periode 1997–2025. Penelitian menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif dengan data sekunder time series (348 observasi bulanan) yang dianalisis melalui model regresi logistik biner. Hasil pengujian model menunjukkan model fit secara keseluruhan (LR statistic 45,25; p=0,000), lolos uji Hosmer-Lemeshow (p=0,909), memiliki ketepatan klasifikasi 87,07%, dan McFadden R-squared sebesar 0,2516. Hasil uji hipotesis menunjukkan bahwa Inflasi berpengaruh positif signifikan, Nilai Tukar berpengaruh negatif signifikan, serta rasio M2/Cadangan Luar Negeri berpengaruh positif signifikan terhadap krisis perbankan. Sebaliknya, Pertumbuhan PDB, Suku Bunga, Pertumbuhan Ekspor, Pertumbuhan Kredit, dan rasio Aset Luar Negeri/Utang Luar Negeri tidak terbukti berpengaruh signifikan. Temuan ini mengindikasikan bahwa hipotesis penelitian terkonfirmasi sebagian (partially supported) dan menegaskan pentingnya inflasi, nilai tukar, serta keseimbangan likuiditas eksternal sebagai indikator utama dalam sistem peringatan dini (early warning system) krisis perbankan di Indonesia.
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